{ "slug": "us-restaurant-market", "question": "How big is the US restaurant market, who are the buyers, what margins do they run on and what does restaurant software earn per location?", "title": "US Restaurant Market 2026: Sales, Number of Restaurants, Owner Structure, Labour Costs, Margins and Restaurant Software Economics", "answer": { "headline": "US restaurants and bars sold $1,032.7B in 2025 through 721,796 establishments, and 85.9% of full-service restaurants are single-location businesses. Margins are thin — the median listed restaurant company kept 4.3% of revenue as operating profit in 2025 — while Toast earns about $13,300 a year per location.", "sample": "US Census Bureau (Monthly Retail Trade, Statistics of US Businesses, 2022 Economic Census, Annual Business Survey, Business Trends and Outlook Survey), US Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW, OEWS, JOLTS, CPI, Consumer Expenditure Survey), SEC filings of listed restaurant companies and restaurant software vendors, National Restaurant Association surveys — 2022–2026 reference periods", "verifiedAsOf": "2026-10-26" }, "sections": [ { "id": "sales", "title": "Restaurant and bar sales in the United States", "note": "Census sales estimates cover all food services and drinking places (NAICS 722), employer and nonemployer businesses, in current dollars. Monthly growth rates are early estimates and get revised. Employer-firm receipts for 2022 come from a different Census program and are shown for the split between full-service, limited-service and bars.", "rows": [ { "label": "Food services and drinking places — annual sales", "value": "$1,032.7B", "segment": "all of NAICS 722 · not seasonally adjusted", "period": "2025", "source": "US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/mrtssales92-present.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food services and drinking places — annual sales", "value": "$984.2B", "segment": "all of NAICS 722 · not seasonally adjusted", "period": "2024", "source": "US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/mrtssales92-present.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food services and drinking places — sales, January to August", "value": "$715.3B", "segment": "cumulative, not seasonally adjusted", "period": "Jan–Aug 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/mrtssales92-present.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Restaurants and other eating places — sales, January to August", "value": "$632.3B", "segment": "NAICS 7225 · excludes bars and special food services", "period": "Jan–Aug 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/mrtssales92-present.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service eating places — annual sales", "value": "$479.3B", "segment": "fast food, cafeterias, snack and coffee bars", "period": "2025", "source": "US Census Bureau, Monthly Retail Trade", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/mrtssales92-present.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food services and drinking places — sales growth, year over year", "value": "7.0%", "segment": "September vs September · advance estimate", "period": "Sep 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Sales", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food services and drinking places — sales growth, last three months vs a year ago", "value": "6.0%", "segment": "advance estimate", "period": "Jul–Sep 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Sales", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food services and drinking places — year-to-date sales growth", "value": "4.4%", "segment": "January–September vs same period of 2025", "period": "Jan–Sep 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Sales", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Menu prices, full-service restaurant meals — 12-month change", "value": "+3.5%", "segment": "consumer price index", "period": "Aug 2026", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SEFV01?output_view=data", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Menu prices, limited-service restaurant meals — 12-month change", "value": "+3.2%", "segment": "consumer price index", "period": "Aug 2026", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SEFV02?output_view=data", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant firms — receipts", "value": "$381.8B", "segment": "employer firms only", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurant firms — receipts", "value": "$352.9B", "segment": "employer firms only", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Drinking places (bars) — receipts", "value": "$31.4B", "segment": "employer firms only", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 } ] }, { "id": "outlets", "title": "How many restaurants there are: establishments and firms", "note": "Establishments are physical locations with paid employees (annual average, private sector). Firms are companies: one firm can run many locations. The firm counts by employee size show how many buyers are small owner-operators.", "rows": [ { "label": "Food services and drinking places — establishments", "value": "721,796", "segment": "all of NAICS 722", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Restaurants and other eating places — establishments", "value": "627,086", "segment": "NAICS 7225", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants — establishments", "value": "269,945", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants — establishments", "value": "264,800", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars — establishments", "value": "87,158", "segment": "coffee shops, juice and snack bars", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Drinking places (bars) — establishments", "value": "42,249", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant firms — total", "value": "224,680", "segment": "employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant firms with fewer than 20 employees", "value": "159,252", "segment": "small operators", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant firms with fewer than 5 employees", "value": "66,773", "segment": "micro operators", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant firms with 5,000+ employees", "value": "88", "segment": "large chains", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurant firms — total", "value": "162,837", "segment": "employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurant firms with fewer than 20 employees", "value": "126,759", "segment": "small operators", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurant firms with fewer than 5 employees", "value": "61,042", "segment": "micro operators", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Statistics of US Businesses", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/us_state_naics_detailedsizes_2022.txt", "tier": 1 } ] }, { "id": "ownership", "title": "Independent or chain: who owns the locations", "note": "Full-service dining is a market of single-location owners; limited-service is split between franchise systems and independents. Concentration is low in both: the four largest firms take about 6% of revenue. Franchise shares come from the 2017 Economic Census, the latest with this table, and are marked as historical.", "rows": [ { "label": "Full-service restaurants run by single-location firms", "value": "85.9%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZESUMU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant revenue earned by single-location firms", "value": "69.2%", "segment": "share of revenue", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZESUMU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants run by single-location firms", "value": "56.8%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZESUMU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurant revenue earned by single-location firms", "value": "39.5%", "segment": "share of revenue", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZESUMU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants — revenue share of the 4 largest firms", "value": "6%", "segment": "concentration", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZECONCEN.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants — revenue share of the 50 largest firms", "value": "15%", "segment": "concentration", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZECONCEN.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants — revenue share of the 4 largest firms", "value": "5.7%", "segment": "concentration", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZECONCEN.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants — revenue share of the 50 largest firms", "value": "16.8%", "segment": "concentration", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZECONCEN.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants operating as franchises", "value": "57.3%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2017", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2017/sector00/EC1700FRAN.zip", "tier": 1, "stale": true }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurant revenue earned by franchise locations", "value": "68.0%", "segment": "share of revenue", "period": "2017", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2017/sector00/EC1700FRAN.zip", "tier": 1, "stale": true }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants operating as franchises", "value": "12.5%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2017", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2017/sector00/EC1700FRAN.zip", "tier": 1, "stale": true }, { "label": "Full-service restaurant revenue earned by franchise locations", "value": "15.3%", "segment": "share of revenue", "period": "2017", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2017/sector00/EC1700FRAN.zip", "tier": 1, "stale": true } ] }, { "id": "revenue-bands", "title": "Full-service restaurant firms by annual revenue", "note": "Number of full-service restaurant firms in each annual revenue band. The densest band is $1–2.5M a year; that is the typical buyer a restaurant software budget has to fit.", "rows": [ { "label": "$250,000–$499,999", "value": "28,808 firms", "segment": "", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "$500,000–$999,999", "value": "47,623 firms", "segment": "", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "$1M–$2.5M", "value": "59,479 firms", "segment": "densest band", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "$2.5M–$5M", "value": "19,240 firms", "segment": "", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "$5M–$10M", "value": "5,423 firms", "segment": "", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "$10M–$25M", "value": "1,486 firms", "segment": "", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "$100M or more", "value": "137 firms", "segment": "together $68.8B in revenue", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector00/EC2200SIZEREVFIRM.zip", "tier": 1 } ], "chart": "bars" }, { "id": "labour", "title": "Labour: the largest cost line", "note": "Employment and pay come from unemployment-insurance records (QCEW) and the occupational wage survey (OEWS). Turnover rates (JOLTS) are published for accommodation and food services together, not for restaurants alone. Labour cost shares come from two different bases — listed chains and an operator survey — and are not the same measure.", "rows": [ { "label": "Food services and drinking places — employees", "value": "12,200,765", "segment": "private sector, annual average", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants — employees", "value": "5,338,653", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants — employees", "value": "4,598,072", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food services and drinking places — total annual wages", "value": "$347.8B", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants — average annual pay per employee", "value": "$31,394", "segment": "includes part-time staff", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Limited-service restaurants — average annual pay per employee", "value": "$24,217", "segment": "includes part-time staff", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Chefs and head cooks — median annual wage", "value": "$60,580", "segment": "food services and drinking places", "period": "May 2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEWS", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/OEUN000000072200035101113", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Restaurant cooks — median annual wage", "value": "$37,170", "segment": "food services and drinking places", "period": "May 2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEWS", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/OEUN000000072200035201413", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Waiters and waitresses — median annual wage", "value": "$35,210", "segment": "food services and drinking places", "period": "May 2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEWS", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/OEUN000000072200035303113", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Fast food and counter workers — median hourly wage", "value": "$14.80", "segment": "food services and drinking places", "period": "May 2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEWS", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/OEUN000000072200035302308", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Hourly-paid workers at or below the federal minimum wage", "value": "7.0%", "segment": "share of hourly-paid workers, food services and drinking places", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPS", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat45.pdf", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Quits rate", "value": "4.24% a month", "segment": "accommodation and food services · 2025 average", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/JTS720000000000000QUR", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Total separations rate", "value": "5.44% a month", "segment": "accommodation and food services · 2025 average", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/JTS720000000000000TSR", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Job openings rate", "value": "5.65%", "segment": "accommodation and food services · 2025 average", "period": "2025", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/JTS720000000000000JOR", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Labour and related expense as share of revenue — listed restaurant companies", "value": "31.2%", "segment": "median · 10 US-listed companies with $50M+ revenue", "period": "2025", "source": "SEC EDGAR financial data", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/frames/us-gaap/LaborAndRelatedExpense/USD/CY2025.json", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Salaries, wages and benefits as share of sales — full-service operators", "value": "36.5%", "segment": "median · operator survey (proxy)", "period": "2024", "source": "National Restaurant Association", "url": "https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/elevated-labor-costs-had-a-significant-impact-on-restaurant-profitability-in-2024/", "tier": 2 }, { "label": "Salaries, wages and benefits as share of sales — limited-service operators", "value": "31.7%", "segment": "median · operator survey (proxy)", "period": "2024", "source": "National Restaurant Association", "url": "https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/elevated-labor-costs-had-a-significant-impact-on-restaurant-profitability-in-2024/", "tier": 2 } ] }, { "id": "margins", "title": "What is left: operator margins", "note": "Three different margins. Company-level margins of listed restaurant companies are after corporate overhead. Restaurant-level margins are company-defined and before overhead, so they run several times higher. The operator survey covers mostly independent restaurants.", "rows": [ { "label": "Listed restaurant companies — median operating margin", "value": "4.3%", "segment": "33 US-listed companies with $50M+ revenue", "period": "2025", "source": "SEC EDGAR financial data", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/frames/us-gaap/OperatingIncomeLoss/USD/CY2025.json", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Listed restaurant companies — operating margin, 25th percentile", "value": "0.2%", "segment": "same set", "period": "2025", "source": "SEC EDGAR financial data", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/frames/us-gaap/OperatingIncomeLoss/USD/CY2025.json", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Listed restaurant companies — operating margin, 75th percentile", "value": "10.9%", "segment": "same set", "period": "2025", "source": "SEC EDGAR financial data", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/frames/us-gaap/OperatingIncomeLoss/USD/CY2025.json", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Listed restaurant companies — median net profit margin", "value": "1.9%", "segment": "same revenue threshold", "period": "2025", "source": "SEC EDGAR financial data", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/frames/us-gaap/NetIncomeLoss/USD/CY2025.json", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Listed restaurant companies with an operating loss", "value": "21.2%", "segment": "share of the set", "period": "2025", "source": "SEC EDGAR financial data", "url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/frames/us-gaap/OperatingIncomeLoss/USD/CY2025.json", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service operators — median pre-tax income", "value": "2.8% of sales", "segment": "operator survey (proxy)", "period": "2024", "source": "National Restaurant Association", "url": "https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/new-association-report-helps-operators-gauge-their-restaurant-performance/", "tier": 2 }, { "label": "Limited-service operators — median pre-tax income", "value": "4.0% of sales", "segment": "operator survey (proxy)", "period": "2024", "source": "National Restaurant Association", "url": "https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/restaurant-economic-insights/analysis-commentary/new-association-report-helps-operators-gauge-their-restaurant-performance/", "tier": 2 }, { "label": "Food service employer firms that made a profit", "value": "56.6%", "segment": "share of firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Chipotle — restaurant-level operating margin", "value": "25.4%", "segment": "company-owned restaurants · before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "Chipotle earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058090/000105809026000007/cmg-20260203xex991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "CAVA — restaurant-level profit margin", "value": "24.4%", "segment": "before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "CAVA earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639438/000162828026011087/earningsrelease2025q4.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Shake Shack — restaurant-level profit margin", "value": "22.6%", "segment": "company-operated · before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "Shake Shack earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1620533/000162053326000013/shak-20260226_exhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "First Watch — restaurant-level operating profit margin", "value": "18.5%", "segment": "before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "First Watch earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1789940/000178994026000017/exhibit991q42025corrected.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "BJ's Restaurants — restaurant-level operating profit margin", "value": "15.5%", "segment": "before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "BJ's Restaurants earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1013488/000117184326001099/exh_991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Sweetgreen — restaurant-level profit margin", "value": "15.2%", "segment": "before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "Sweetgreen earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1477815/000162828026012331/q425sweetgreenearningsrele.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Red Robin — restaurant-level operating profit margin", "value": "12.7%", "segment": "before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "Red Robin earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1171759/000162828026011637/exhibit991q4-2025.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Noodles & Company — restaurant contribution margin", "value": "12.6%", "segment": "before overhead", "period": "2025", "source": "Noodles & Company earnings release (SEC)", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1275158/000127515826000019/a2025q4ex991earningsrelease.htm", "tier": 1 } ] }, { "id": "guests", "title": "What a household spends eating out, by income and age", "note": "Annual spending on food away from home per consumer unit (roughly, per household). Spending rises steadily with income: the top income band spends about five times the lowest. Age bands peak at 35–54.", "rows": [ { "label": "All households", "value": "$3,945", "segment": "average", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CXUFOODAWAYLB0401M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Income under $15,000", "value": "$1,739", "segment": "before-tax income", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CXUFOODAWAYLB0218M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Income $15,000–$29,999", "value": "$1,551", "segment": "before-tax income", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CXUFOODAWAYLB0219M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Income $70,000–$99,999", "value": "$3,410", "segment": "before-tax income", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CXUFOODAWAYLB0220M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Income $100,000–$149,999", "value": "$4,786", "segment": "before-tax income", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CXUFOODAWAYLB0221M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Income $150,000–$199,999", "value": "$6,241", "segment": "before-tax income", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CXUFOODAWAYLB0222M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Income $200,000 and more", "value": "$8,489", "segment": "before-tax income", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CXUFOODAWAYLB0223M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Head of household under 25", "value": "$3,025", "segment": "age of reference person", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CXUFOODAWAYLB0402M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Head of household 35–44", "value": "$5,049", "segment": "age of reference person", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CXUFOODAWAYLB0404M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Head of household 45–54", "value": "$5,069", "segment": "age of reference person", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CXUFOODAWAYLB0405M", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Head of household 65 and over", "value": "$2,689", "segment": "age of reference person", "period": "2024", "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey", "url": "https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v1/timeseries/data/CXUFOODAWAYLB0407M", "tier": 1 } ], "chart": "bars" }, { "id": "technology", "title": "Technology already in the restaurant", "note": "Self-service ordering and payment devices (kiosks, tablets, QR) are already common, especially at limited-service counters. Back-office software and AI are not: about one in five food service firms uses specialised software, and under one in ten uses AI. Census survey rows cover employer firms; consumer intentions come from an industry survey.", "rows": [ { "label": "Limited-service restaurants using self-service ordering or payment devices", "value": "71.8%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector72/EC2272ELMENU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars using self-service ordering or payment devices", "value": "61.1%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector72/EC2272ELMENU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Full-service restaurants using self-service ordering or payment devices", "value": "48.0%", "segment": "share of establishments", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/sector72/EC2272ELMENU.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food service firms using specialised software in their processes", "value": "20.8%", "segment": "share of employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food service firms using cloud-based technology", "value": "18%", "segment": "share of employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food service firms using AI in any business function", "value": "9.4%", "segment": "last two weeks", "period": "Apr 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey", "url": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/downloads/Subsector.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food service firms expecting to use AI within six months", "value": "10.9%", "segment": "", "period": "Apr 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey", "url": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/downloads/Subsector.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Food service firms not expecting to use AI within six months", "value": "60.5%", "segment": "", "period": "Sep 2026", "source": "US Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey", "url": "https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/downloads/Subsector.xlsx", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Off-premises customers who would order through the restaurant's website", "value": "84%", "segment": "consumer survey (proxy)", "period": "2024", "source": "National Restaurant Association", "url": "https://restaurant.org/education-and-resources/resource-library/new-report-examines-the-technology-landscape-in-todays-restaurants/", "tier": 2 }, { "label": "Off-premises customers likely to order through a third-party delivery app", "value": "71%", "segment": "consumer survey (proxy)", "period": "2024", "source": "National Restaurant Association", "url": "https://restaurant.org/education-and-resources/resource-library/new-report-examines-the-technology-landscape-in-todays-restaurants/", "tier": 2 } ] }, { "id": "vendors", "title": "What restaurant software vendors earn per location", "note": "Company-reported metrics of three listed US restaurant technology platforms. Toast counts restaurants plus some food and beverage retail. Toast's payments revenue is large but thin: most of it is passed through to card networks. Each vendor defines its metrics itself — compare them with care.", "rows": [ { "label": "Toast — locations on the platform", "value": "~180,000", "segment": "restaurants and food and beverage retail", "period": "Jun 2026", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000162/tost-20260630xexhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — annualised recurring revenue per location", "value": "$13,300", "segment": "subscription plus payments", "period": "Jun 2026", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000162/tost-20260630xexhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — subscription software revenue per location", "value": "$5,707 a year", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000057/tost-20251231.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — annualised recurring run-rate", "value": "$2.4B", "segment": "", "period": "Q2 2026", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000162/tost-20260630xexhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — recurring run-rate growth, year over year", "value": "25%", "segment": "", "period": "Q2 2026", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000162/tost-20260630xexhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — payments revenue as share of payment volume", "value": "2.58%", "segment": "fintech revenue ÷ gross payment volume", "period": "2025", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000057/tost-20251231.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — payments margin after processing costs", "value": "0.59%", "segment": "of gross payment volume", "period": "2025", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000057/tost-20251231.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — gross margin on subscription software", "value": "71.8%", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000057/tost-20251231.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — payment volume processed per location", "value": "$1.19M a year", "segment": "", "period": "2025", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000057/tost-20251231.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Toast — sales and marketing spend per net new location", "value": "$17,500", "segment": "quarterly spend ÷ net new locations · CAC proxy", "period": "Q2 2026", "source": "Toast, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000162/tost-20260630xexhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "PAR Technology — active restaurant sites on subscription", "value": "174,300", "segment": "mostly enterprise chains", "period": "Jun 2026", "source": "PAR Technology, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/708821/000070882126000101/aex991earningsreleasexq220.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "PAR Technology — annual recurring revenue per active site", "value": "$1,939", "segment": "", "period": "Q2 2026", "source": "PAR Technology, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/708821/000070882126000101/aex991earningsreleasexq220.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "PAR Technology — ARR growth, year over year", "value": "17%", "segment": "", "period": "Q2 2026", "source": "PAR Technology, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/708821/000070882126000101/aex991earningsreleasexq220.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Olo — active restaurant locations", "value": "~89,000", "segment": "digital ordering for brands", "period": "Jun 2025", "source": "Olo, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1431695/000143169525000022/oloq22025exhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Olo — average revenue per unit (ARPU)", "value": "~$955", "segment": "company-defined metric", "period": "Q2 2025", "source": "Olo, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1431695/000143169525000022/oloq22025exhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Olo — dollar-based net revenue retention", "value": "114%", "segment": "", "period": "Q2 2025", "source": "Olo, SEC filings", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1431695/000143169525000022/oloq22025exhibit991.htm", "tier": 1 } ] }, { "id": "financing", "title": "How restaurants look for money", "note": "Employer firms in food services and drinking places, asked about financing in the prior year. Shares of applicants refer to firms that sought financing.", "rows": [ { "label": "Firms that did not need additional financing", "value": "78.9%", "segment": "share of employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Firms that needed financing and applied", "value": "10.9%", "segment": "share of employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Firms that needed financing but did not apply", "value": "10.2%", "segment": "share of employer firms", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Applied to a bank", "value": "56.2%", "segment": "share of firms seeking financing", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Applied to a finance company", "value": "13.4%", "segment": "share of firms seeking financing", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Applied to a fintech or online lender", "value": "12%", "segment": "share of firms seeking financing", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Applied to a credit union", "value": "6.8%", "segment": "share of firms seeking financing", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 }, { "label": "Applicants that received none of the financing", "value": "21.5%", "segment": "share of applicants", "period": "2022", "source": "US Census Bureau, Annual Business Survey", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/abs/data/2022/AB2200MCB01.zip", "tier": 1 } ] } ], "reconciliation": { "title": "Why the restaurant numbers do not add up to one picture", "body": "Four differences in scope explain most of the gaps. First, sales against receipts: the $1,032.7B Census sales estimate covers every food service and drinking place, including nonemployer businesses, while the 2022 receipts by subsector count employer firms only. Second, establishments against firms: BLS counts 264,800 full-service locations with paid staff, Census counts 224,680 full-service firms — one firm can run many locations, and the counts come from different years and registers. Third, labour cost: 31.2% is the median of ten large listed chains reporting a labour expense line; 36.5% is the median from an operator survey of mostly independent full-service restaurants, including benefits. Turnover rates are published for accommodation and food services together. Fourth, margin: listed-company operating margins (median 4.3%) are after corporate overhead and include franchisors; restaurant-level margins of 12–25% are company-defined and before overhead; the operator survey's 2.8% pre-tax median covers small independents. Use the Census and BLS rows for market sizing, the survey rows as indications for independents, and the vendor rows as benchmarks of what one platform earns, not of the whole market.", "sources": [ { "source": "US Census Bureau — Monthly Retail Trade and Advance Monthly Retail Sales", "url": "https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html" }, { "source": "US Census Bureau — Statistics of US Businesses 2022", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/susb/tables/2022/" }, { "source": "US Census Bureau — 2022 Economic Census", "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/economic-census/data/2022/" }, { "source": "US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages", "url": "https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/area/US000.csv" }, { "source": "National Restaurant Association — research", "url": "https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/" } ] }, "methodology": "Every number on this page is a fact node in the God of Startups Atlas — a knowledge graph where each metric carries its source URL, reporting period, evidence tier and the verbatim quote it was taken from. Tier 1 means official or statutory sources (US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, company filings with the SEC); tier 2 means industry research with a disclosed method (National Restaurant Association surveys, marked as proxy). Values are shown as the source reports them, in current US dollars; nothing is converted, estimated or modelled. Rows marked as historical come from the 2017 Economic Census, the latest edition with franchise data.", "metaTitle": "US Restaurant Market 2026: Sales, Outlets, Margins, Software", "metaDescription": "US restaurants and bars sold $1,032.7B in 2025 through 721,796 establishments; the median listed restaurant company kept a 4.3% operating margin.", "cite": "God of Startups Atlas (2026). US Restaurant Market 2026: Sales, Number of Restaurants, Owner Structure, Labour Costs, Margins and Restaurant Software Economics. https://godofstartups.com/atlas/us-restaurant-market — data: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, SEC filings, National Restaurant Association. Licence: CC BY 4.0.", "page": "https://godofstartups.com/atlas/us-restaurant-market", "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/", "note": "Each row carries its primary source, period and evidence tier (1 = official/statutory, 2 = industry research with disclosed method)." }